At least $9B
A prosecutor’s spoken December 2025 estimate that "half or more" of the $18 billion billed might be fraudulent. Not a charging document, audit, or court finding.
Who reported it, and what it covers
First Assistant U.S. Attorney, District of Minnesota, said December 18, 2025
Billed 2018 through 2025
14 Medicaid service types Minnesota flagged as high risk
An estimate stated aloud by a named person without a supporting document. Not a finding.
What it does not show
Not a loss anyone has charged or proven. It is half of total billing in 14 programs, offered as a possibility.
What the source says
At that news conference, he suggested that fraudsters may have siphoned at least half of the $18 billion that was spent in Minnesota since 2018 in 14 different Medicaid programs that investigators had flagged at a high risk for abuse.
Fact-checking Minnesota mentions in President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech, MPR News, February 25, 2026. News reporting (characterization source).
Checked against the source October 11, 2026.
Other numbers in circulation
Each of these measures something different. They are not steps toward one total and are never added together.
Cite this figure
Everything needed to cite this number and check it against the original.
at least $9B: Prosecutor’s "half or more" of $18 billion estimate
Spoken estimate
14 Medicaid service types Minnesota flagged as high risk. Billed 2018 through 2025.
Fact-checking Minnesota mentions in President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech (MPR News). News reporting; characterization source.
February 25, 2026
October 11, 2026
at least $9B: Prosecutor’s "half or more" of $18 billion estimate. Type: Spoken estimate. Covers: Billed 2018 through 2025. Source (characterization): MPR News, “Fact-checking Minnesota mentions in President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech,” February 25, 2026, https://www.mprnews.org/episode/2026/02/25/fact-checking-minnesota-mentions-in-president-donald-trumps-state-of-the-union-speech Via MN Public Tools, mnpublictools.com/fraud/figure/thompson-9b-estimate (checked October 11, 2026).
Every figure in one file: spreadsheet (CSV) · JSON.
Changes to this record
Corrected what MDE could investigate, how the FBI case opened, and whether the 2026 interviews were sworn
Corrected Joe Thompson’s title in the list of amounts in circulation
Figures now keep their source’s qualifier, and claims name the speaker’s title on the date
People charged but not convicted are presumed innocent, and amounts labeled alleged come from charging documents, not proven losses. Method and corrections